The UFC is going full swing on its Paramount+ schedule with another card this weekend.

It's a "Fight Night" not at the APEX, and features a middleweight main event.

I still think the Middleweight division is interesting, despite Reinier de Ridder's flop last October. However, he's not what keeps me interested, as I now think the division could be former LFA Middleweight Champion Anthony "Fluffly" Hernandez's to take.

UFC @ufc Anthony Hernandez only has the belt on his mind 😤 [ #UFCHouston | SAT FEB 21 on @ParamountPlus ] 3:0 PM • Feb 10, 2026 32 Retweets 471 Likes Read 16 replies

​

I know Sean Strickland is... We'll say "popular," but I don't think he beats Hernandez. Strickland's success comes from his awkward style and some durability. I see Hernandez as the better fighter.

So, since we picked up a lot of new users for the Notion Template, I figured I would share some notes with you on how I see the fights playing out.

Remember, I'm not an oddsmaker or big gambler, I'm just a hobbyist martial artist who covers the sport and enjoys analyzing fights.

I used to track my accuracy pre-UFC ESPN era on a spreadsheet before I discovered Notion.

Before that, just a pen and paper.

Sometimes that's better.

Whatever you prefer, here are my predictions for this weekend's UFC event.

• Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez: Anthony Hernandez via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) - Round 4. The metabolic pressure exerted by Hernandez's wrestling is projected to eventually breach Strickland's defensive shell, leading to a late-fight submission in the championship rounds.
• Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija: Serghei Spivac via Unanimous Decision. Spivac’s technical grappling and record-holding takedown accuracy are expected to neutralize Delija’s early power, resulting in a dominant ground-control victory.
• Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa: Dan Ige via Split Decision. In a technical boxing encounter, Ige’s durability and veteran savvy are projected to out-point the more explosive but less consistent Costa over 15 minutes.
• Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic: Geoff Neal via KO/TKO (Punches) - Round 2. Neal’s superior takedown defense and precision striking from the southpaw stance should allow him to catch the aggressive Medic as the fight enters the second frame.
• Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese: Michel Pereira via KO/TKO (Punches) - Round 1. Pereira’s physical advantages and newfound discipline at middleweight make him a heavy favorite to end this contest early.
• *Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell: Jacobe Smith via KO/TKO (Ground and Pound) - Round 1. Josiah Harrell is a late replacement. The wrestling pedigree of Smith is expected to be too much for any short-notice replacement to handle.

*The card change announced after this was initially published.

P.S.:

If you're using the Notion template, let me know what you think. If you're reading this online, get here (free).

If you prefer a notebook, I made this one here; you can grab on the cheap.

➡Follow me on 𝕏: @Carbazel​

📘 My books: Bow and Arrow Mysteries (my fiction writing)

📩 Mixed Martial Answers on Substack​

📃 Fight Night Card Companion: PDF​

🎥 My YouTube channel: The Blogboard Jungle​

📸 IG: @Carbeerzel​