Carbazel on 𝕏
I'm a writer and podcaster who writes a lot about combat sports, martial arts culture, and entertainment. Subscribe and join over 1,000 readers every week!
Jun 04 • 1 min read
Fate vs. Patterns
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Patterns exist in most martial arts. If you watch any sort of martial arts competition, you’ll see them, even in modern MMA. Fate has something to do with who wins, but the patterns are still there if you know what to watch for. Justin Gaethje is one of my favorite fighters. I’ve been following him since his time at “World Series of Fighting” (WSOF, which became the PFL). He was their lightweight champion, and left as the champion when he entered the UFC. I’ve taken a lot of notes on him. ( Want a notebook for fights? Get it 👉 here. ) When he came to the UFC, he faced Michael Johnson. Johnson dismissed him because of where he was coming from, and he was an underdog in that fight. Gaethje won by 2nd-round TKO. It’s a pattern that would follow him throughout his UFC career when you look at his time there. Gaethje’s underdog record matters when you see oddsmakers put him as one. In eight of his fights (all in the UFC), Gaethje has an 8-3 record as a betting underdog across 11 UFC bouts (from 2017 onward). His underdog wins are:
His underdog losses were to Khabib Nurmagomedov, Charles Oliveira, and Dustin Poirier (first fight). He’s currently the underdog against Ilia Topuria. At the time of writing this, various sportsbooks have him as a +455 to +500 underdog. If you know how he fights, you know he’ll do something to make it memorable. I remember in his fight with Oliveira, I also remembered that Nurmagomedov was able to submit him; I had a feeling Oliveira would do the same. But I also knew Gaethje would drop him early, which he did. I had a prop bet that he would, so even when he lost, he won somewhere ( and so did I 😉). I know Topuria is a heavy favorite with odds around -625 to -750, which is crazy to me given his absence. Anything can happen in MMA, so I am not giving you betting advice. I’m just saying a lot of martial arts and fighting is based on patterns, until fate intervenes. Taking notes on this and other events? Grab your physical notebook on Amazon for cheap! [📓Here] ➡Follow me on 𝕏: @Carbazel 📘 My books: Bow and Arrow Mysteries (my fiction writing) 📩 Mixed Martial Answers on Substack 📓 Fight Night Card Companion Notebook: on Amazon 📃 Make your own Fight Night Card Companion: PDF 🎥 My YouTube channel: The Blogboard Jungle 📸 IG: @Carbeerzel |
I'm a writer and podcaster who writes a lot about combat sports, martial arts culture, and entertainment. Subscribe and join over 1,000 readers every week!