The UFC is back in the APEX this weekend for a fight — a rematch that took place in a crowded arena the first time.

This should read, "KAPE vs. HORIGUCHI 2", but we know the UFC (for some reason STILL) doesn't like to recognize other promotions. Which is by design, and it's been working for them.

But that's for another post...

...this one is about this fight, and their last one.

What happened last time?

Well, if you didn't know, back in 2017 in RIZIN Fighting Federation, Kyoji Horiguchi submitted Manel Kape in round three of their Grand Prix bout. The fight was great, and this rematch should be advertised better, because it will only be more of the same.

Check out the highlight here:

RedWolf🐺 @RedWolfMMA Just a reminder that the first time Kape and Horiguchi scrapped was in front of a packed and hyped up Saitama Super Arena and produced one of the best fights in Rizin history 🔥 The rematch goes down in an empty warehouse 😞 #UFCVegas119 4:55 PM • Jun 17, 2026 9 Retweets 79 Likes Read 6 replies

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For some reason, at the time of this writing, oddsmakers have Kape as a slight favorite (~-155 to -170).

I don't know how oddsmakin' math works, but that seems silly to me if you're paying attention to the sport. They did the same thing last week for UFC Freedom 250 by making Justin Gaethje an underdog.

We all saw how that worked out.

You would think they'd take better notes. If you know someone who does make odds and needs a notebook, please get the Fight Night Companion Notebook for Father's Day. It's only $7 and could probably save (or make) them some money of they're in the business of making picks for fights.

If you're making notes, these are the current odds on Horiguchi:

• Moneyline: Horiguchi +130 to +140 (Kape -155 to -165 favorite). Examples: bet365 +130; DraftKings +136; several sharp books holding near +140.
• Method props (approximate, varies by book):
  • Horiguchi by decision: +240 to +250.
  • Horiguchi by submission: +800.
  • Horiguchi by KO/TKO: +900.

I'm not giving you gambling advice, lord knows I'm bad at it.

But underdogs seem to be winning more than usual these days.

Taking notes on this and other events?

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