I thought I'd share how I pick winners since I've been pretty good about picking them lately.

(Even if I forgot to put 💰 down on them)

If you’re new to the sport and want to start picking winners, there are a lot of ways to do it.

I’m not sure how the oddsmakers make their odds, but I can tell you what I do. Yes, you have to watch a lot of fights. Which is fun and easy, that’s why you’re reading this. You’re already doing that part.

But you have to add something else.

Before I begin, I’m not a seasoned gambler, and I don’t gamble often.
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This is not gambling advice, it’s just my way of picking fights.

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Pick a fighter, any fighter. Don’t do it randomly either, pick one you like watching. Every time they’re booked, make notes of how they win. If they’re very good at something, make notes on what that is.

For example, Alex Pereira comes from kickboxing and is a very good striker. Most of his wins come by KO/TKO. Chances are, that’s how he’ll keep winning as long as he keeps fighting. I use him as an example because of his recent win at UFC 320.

​AI picked him to lose; many of us did.

But he didn’t.

There are a lot of tools out there to see how fighters win; the best one out there is Tapology.

Sherdog’s fight-finder is a close second, but I find Tapology a bit cleaner and more specific. A third one that not many people like is Wikipedia. Many UFC events are listed there, and if the fighter has a Wiki, their records and history will help you do your research to add to your Fight Night Companion Card (here free for non-subscribers).

So when I look up a fighter and their matchups, I look at three things.
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• The way they win the most
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• How many fights have they had
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• Who they have fought

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Method of Victory

If the fighter you're eyeing is in the top 10 and they are an underdog, you will probably see better bets on placing money on how they normally win.

I like using Justin Gaethje as an example, but more recently, Pereira works too.

Both guys can land shots that finish fights, if plus money is there for them in a matchup, winning that way, it’s better than the money line more often than not.

I’m not saying you’ll win!

But if you do, this bet will pay more.

Experience

Some fighters you may have never heard of can come in with a lot of experience, but they could be new to you, new to the promotion.

These days, this usually means new to the UFC.

Look at Reinier de Ridder. He was a double champ at ONE Championship and held titles everywhere else he fought. I even wrote about his accolades over at MyMMANews to inform people; read that here.

Yet, when he faced Bo Nickal, he was the underdog.

He was 20-2 when he faced Nickal, who was only 7-1 at the time. De Ridder’s two losses are to someone with a wrestling background; maybe that’s why he was an underdog?

Who knows?

But more time than not, especially if they are the same age, the more experienced fighter wins.

Quality Not Quantity

Who someone has fought against can count almost as much as experience.

It doesn’t matter the outcome, but if they have had better quality opponents than their opponent, it can help sharpen the iron of that fighter. Former champs, fighters ranked higher, things like that can matter, along with the other two above.

I know, it’s a lot to remember.

Especially if you’re just getting into combat sports. That’s what the Fight Night Companion Card (template) is for.

If using Notion is just too much for you, you can grab the PDF versions and print them out for yourself here, pay what you want (it's already cheap).

Until the next one, enjoy the fights!

➡Follow me on 𝕏: @Carbazel​

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📘 My books: Bow and Arrow Mysteries (my fiction writing)

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📩 Mixed Martial Answers on Substack​

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📃 Fight Night Card Companion: on Gumroad​

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🎥 My YouTube channel: The Blogboard Jungle​

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📸 IG: @Carbeerzel​

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