Last weekend at UFC 319, Tim Elliot submitted Kai Asakura with a guillotine choke in the first round.

Two days before that, when Matt Hawkins and I recorded our preview and picks for the event on Coast-2-Coast Combat Hour, I called that method of victory for Elliot.

​

​

Now, I'm kicking myself for not putting some money down on that fight. Some lines on Elliot show it was +950 for him to win by submission.

Dammit!

I'm not an odds guy; I mention lines when we record, but I never bet big on fights. When I do, it's maybe five or ten bucks. If I had my head screwed on straight, I would have put something down on this.

How'd you know?

That's probably what you want to know next, right?

Well, the thing about this sport is when you get behind a fighter, you know how they're going to win or how they could lose if they're going to. I became a fan of Elliot when he was on "The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions." When he made it to the finale and faced Mighty Mouse (Demetrious Johnson), he locked on a guillotine that almost — almost got him.

Elliot's record is 21-13-1; seven (now eight) of his wins come by way of submission.

I remembered all this because I was keeping better notes back in 2016 when he first got on my radar. I stopped when the sport took this weird turn it took with the UFC's ESPN+ era, but now that it's coming to an end, I want to start tracking fighters again.

If you're reading this, you probably grabbed the free Fight Night Card Companion.

That is just the beginning of me making sure I don't leave another +950 bet on the table. I'll be working on more things to help folks like us keep track of these great fighters, so if you have any recommendations for the Notion template, feel free to let me know. It's not just for bettors; it's for other creators in combat sports to use for whatever content they like.

If you find Notion too complicated and want to do the old-fashioned way, you can just grab a couple of cheap PDFs I made and make a lot of copies for your records. Get them here.

Sincerely,

Ed

​

➡Follow me on 𝕏: @Carbazel​

​

🎥 My YouTube channel: The Blogboard Jungle​

​

📘 My book: Bow and Arrow Mysteries (my fiction writing)

​

📸 IG: @Carbeerzel​

​

📃 Fight Night Card Companion: on Gumroad​

​

📩 Mixed Martial Answers on Substack​

​